Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d8396d5dacd8b2a106dda908a4bf931ad52edc8e971ab8abcbaf1da337bf5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 34c | 9,263$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 64c | 3,183$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.88 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 59c | 3,082$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.46 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 2,127$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 65c | 348.01$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Yes | 73c | 265.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 72c | 142.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 141.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 74c | 134.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 28c | 133.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…738bbacked Yes | 76c | 111.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 74c | 100.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 72c | 100.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 70c | 58.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…e90abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 73c | 23.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 76c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.