MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ebeb329695c5ef73b7e7fd32620fd8b39ae676b4629822df59cd45ba6ce817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 1,994$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 73c | 1,706$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 1,230$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.59 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 924.01$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.36 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 853.38$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 686.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 673.19$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Detroit Tigers | 40c | 223.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Detroit Tigers | 73c | 179.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 158.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 139.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 134.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 134$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Detroit Tigers | 54c | 125.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 113.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 104.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 102.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 102.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 102.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 101.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 66.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 45.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 42.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 38.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 25.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 21.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.