Weather · resolved market
2025 April hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf904c9f6ecae72a847f164f750ceec6b0ba6c98e8fc28837feb09119e3e2eada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 13c | 36,689$4,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,806.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 2c | 3,961$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,376$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 1c | 3,036$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…5224backed Yes | 1c | 1,899$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…0383backed Yes | 3c | 1,606$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 5c | 1,563$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,473$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,085$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 2c | 772$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 14c | 670.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 631.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 574.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…21b1backed Yes | 19c | 322.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 13c | 259.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…39d2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 14c | 151.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 116.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 100.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…9b91backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…77e0backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.