NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf913090277459e6ad11ecb73bcaf4377f6756c9b683d545ab88ee391d02f0052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 29,405$15,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,552.74 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 26,215$12,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,893.89 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 53c | 8,286$4,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.4 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 48c | 6,300$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.34 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 51c | 4,945$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.95 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,289$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.16 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 1,375$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.22 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 885.15$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.05 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 48c | 555$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.6 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 384.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Over | 47c | 364$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 49c | 205.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 49c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 38.5this page
- Ravens vs. BrownsRavens won
- Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 39.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Browns won
- Spread: Ravens (-8.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.