Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93e67b954d32a8207901d8463df6bbcb966532430d4f5391a1122af6c16572a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 242.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 241.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 233.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 63c | 206$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 188.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 165.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 70c | 142.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 122.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 120.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 118.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 116.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 110.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 86.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 45c | 86.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 84.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 43c | 76.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 67.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 58.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 55.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 54c | 51.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 51.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 49c | 48.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 46.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 50c | 43.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 41.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 41.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 68c | 40.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 49c | 38.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 48c | 35.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 33c | 35.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 33.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…6f2cbacked Yes | 50c | 31.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 48c | 30.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 47c | 30.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…4c94backed Yes | 52c | 29.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 49c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.