Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf953f26bb155ebe52dc7b92437d0dc3b58623d67401b64d3f0aaecf44ee94f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 54c | 818.16$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.57 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 57c | 333.78$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…aa71backed No | 15c | 292.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 60c | 217.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 63c | 207.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 196.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…9241backed No | 63c | 170.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 157.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 48c | 154.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 142.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 123.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 35c | 116.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 112.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 58c | 97.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…49aebacked Yes | 32c | 80.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 66.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 29.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 79c | 18.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.