La Liga · resolved market
Will Osasuna vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf965c868e0007f001f7222a0215655cda79ec356f621ad2e9093ff80bf53b7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 1,404$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.01 | 4,846 | 47%2,279 W · 2,567 L | -17.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,019$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…02aebacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 733.82$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.51 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 638.27$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.78 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 69c | 378.45$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 33c | 361.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 33c | 318.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 232$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…b729backed Yes | 32c | 228.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0da…aacebacked Yes | 32c | 218.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…5733backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 68c | 183.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 24c | 164.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 73c | 92.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 30c | 82.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 71.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 44.6%121 W · 150 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…9937backed No | 69c | 59.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fb…9ad0backed Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 22c | 55.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8d…daf1backed No | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…48c1backed No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 69c | 46.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…56e1backed No | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 67c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…5c69backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…58dfbacked No | 69c | 35.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 34.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 751 | 57.3%430 W · 321 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 172 | 52.3%90 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Osasuna vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?this page
- Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22?No won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.