La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeefd5a3a66726a37b84129f0fe461b10131682308aa3b08dc9826350800640b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 68c | 12,459$8,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,471.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 6,167$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,889.17 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 34c | 4,898$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.71 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 11c | 2,253$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 24c | 2,162$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.08 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed No | 66c | 1,850$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.98 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 1,321$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.22 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 916$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.34 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 909.41$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.71 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 27c | 627.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.52 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 34c | 580.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.08 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 54c | 531.27$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.39 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 32c | 314.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…1524backed Yes | 33c | 314.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed No | 67c | 303.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 33c | 290.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 50c | 281$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yes | 74c | 270.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…d049backed Yes | 32c | 232.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.87 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Yes | 35c | 214.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 31c | 161.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…c594backed Yes | 20c | 137.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 33c | 121$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…f4ebbacked Yes | 33c | 83.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 73c | 77.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 36c | 69.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yes | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ae…7ecebacked Yes | 31c | 49.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 65c | 47.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…a303backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0415backed Yes | 34c | 44.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…b1c6backed Yes | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…94b2backed Yes | 36c | 34.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…773abacked Yes | 35c | 33.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 33c | 32.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…3dbcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 64c | 23.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 172 | 52.3%90 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 65c | 21.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Osasuna vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
- Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.