Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf97689367863fa0dc0774f6f248a2a0af392efb75b4266c7d9897521901e2b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledo Rocketsof Ball State Cardinals, Toledo Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Ball State Cardinals | 24c | 2,417$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo Rockets | 76c | 1,352$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Toledo Rockets | 78c | 1,100$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Ball State Cardinals | 24c | 902.42$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toledo Rockets | 77c | 471.84$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 20c | 274.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Toledo Rockets | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Ball State Cardinals | 21c | 187$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Toledo Rockets | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Toledo Rockets | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Toledo Rockets | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Ball State Cardinals | 10c | 120.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6570…32ccbacked Ball State Cardinals | 19c | 103.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 96.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Ball State Cardinals | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ball State Cardinals | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…1105backed Toledo Rockets | 77c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Toledo Rockets | 78c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Toledo Rockets | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Toledo Rockets | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Toledo Rockets | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…757abacked Toledo Rockets | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Toledo Rockets | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toledo Rockets | 76c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toledo Rockets | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Toledo Rockets | 78c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rocketsthis page
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-9.5)Toledo Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.