MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98009e4b0ecc3bf2e75e90a6c267d17bcd1f0c92cf6ba802e1c6540b71176f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 62c | 6,426$3,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 6,005$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 66c | 5,400$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.29 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 3,169$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 3,082$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Under | 66c | 2,100$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 55c | 1,308$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.28 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93d…f0c4backed Under | 63c | 1,300$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 836.71$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 811$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 68c | 583.63$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.21 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 32c | 378.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 40c | 287.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 10c | 172$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 70c | 152.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 123.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…d35fbacked Under | 68c | 114$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 99.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 96.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Over | 16c | 81.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Over | 55c | 78.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…5b57backed Over | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 35c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 32c | 40.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 37c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Under | 43c | 29.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 63c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 66c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.