MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391979c90fee41d0de0323230a71dd49b7b96d88781de80ca4a7d591ec13227c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 10,902$5,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,661.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,199.99 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 5,607$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 2,435$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.87 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 2,176$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.17 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 1,888$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,880$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.43 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 1,761$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.85 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.67 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 555.41$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 451.52$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 358.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 337.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 206.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 193$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 154$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 141$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Colorado Rockies | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 78.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 76c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 75.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 66.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 61.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 58.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…87fcbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 32.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.