NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf981007723403dc8fba92f1ee911027263a3368c511ed7f104dfcc9a81ee9720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Sabres, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Sabres | 31c | 2,178$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…2c81backed Wild | 69c | 2,178$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 32c | 564$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wild | 67c | 415.64$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Wild | 70c | 342.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 33c | 289$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Sabres | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabres | 30c | 124.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wild | 70c | 114.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sabres | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wild | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Sabres | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…b6c7backed Sabres | 19c | 97.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Sabres | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Wild | 68c | 76.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wild | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sabres | 32c | 63.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Sabres | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Wild | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Sabres | 32c | 35.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wild | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Wild | 68c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wild | 70c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. SabresWild won
- Wild vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.