Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a69634aaa98557b49963e171fede1330140a965058572e4f4384e9c182c174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 737.11$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 35c | 141.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 104.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 89.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…0327backed Yes | 23c | 86.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 82.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 80.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 25c | 79.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 73.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 65.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 38c | 60.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 22c | 55.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 47c | 55.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 72c | 53.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 48c | 52.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 47.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,079 | 36.5%394 W · 685 L | +26.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 42.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 40.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 59c | 36.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 26.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 726 | 66.3%481 W · 245 L | +34.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 76c | 23.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.