Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Italy (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ab9cdb6d658a09a650c3a06e08cba46ba3b7f941a43fb285f46e61441f78ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Greeceof Italy, Greece
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Greece | 77c | 4,860$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.11 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Italy | 23c | 2,839$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.06 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Italy | 17c | 1,199$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…68e5backed Italy | 15c | 956.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Greece | 71c | 631.94$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.51 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Italy | 32c | 581.25$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Italy | 12c | 537.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Italy | 34c | 280.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Italy | 14c | 275.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Italy | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Italy | 21c | 190.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Italy | 11c | 108.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Italy | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Italy | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…836ebacked Italy | 33c | 43.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Greece | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked Greece | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Greece | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Italy (-1.5)this page
- Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Greece (-1.5)Italy won
- Spread: Greece (-2.5)Italy won
- Spread: Italy (-2.5)Greece won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.