Fifa International · resolved market
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a2ad51a60240319a3fc91a24c4307d7783760fc71377c2a1d8c0418f4fe1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 1,121$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.37 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 729.65$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cd…896abacked Over | 25c | 481.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 29.9%41 W · 96 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 25c | 372.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 264.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Under | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 300 | 40.3%121 W · 179 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Over | 26c | 195.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 75c | 194.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 168.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 71c | 161.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 145 | 64.1%93 W · 52 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 148.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 142$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 74c | 131.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 84.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 26c | 79.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…af0cbacked Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 74c | 59.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked Under | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…dc9cbacked Under | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…4a95backed Under | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 72c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 365 | 58.4%213 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5this page
- Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Greece vs. Italy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Greece (-1.5)Italy won
- Spread: Greece (-2.5)Italy won
- Spread: Italy (-1.5)Greece won
- Spread: Italy (-2.5)Greece won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.