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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 13?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,323 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e02…ce11backed Yes12c308.18$38 inLost-$38.164035%14 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c202.76$42 inLost-$41.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c142.36$27 inLost-$27.3610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No78c113.9$88 inWon+$25.414,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes28c101.65$28 inLost-$28.433628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes29c91.59$27 inLost-$271,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No72c86.72$62 inWon+$24.6790829.2%265 W · 643 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d43…9719backed Yes28c75$21 inLost-$212825%7 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c55.22$42 inWon+$12.85,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…2721backed Yes21c47.78$10 inLost-$10.2225357.7%146 W · 107 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c43.39$32 inWon+$11.5212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c42.25$30 inWon+$12.2510,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c41.82$29 inWon+$12.333,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes25c40.68$10 inLost-$10.0861929.4%182 W · 437 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes29c40$12 inLost-$11.610033%33 W · 67 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c37.57$27 inWon+$11.062,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c31.03$22 inWon+$96,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c31$22 inWon+$9.388749.5%439 W · 448 L-26.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c28$21 inWon+$7.134,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No72c27.78$20 inWon+$7.781,41765.2%924 W · 493 L+59.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c25$19 inWon+$5.82,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No71c21.04$15 inWon+$6.0423972.8%174 W · 65 L+27.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No71c21$15 inWon+$6.0315062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c20$14 inWon+$5.83,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c19$14 inWon+$5.131,71060.8%1,039 W · 671 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c17$12 inWon+$4.933,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa1…2f62backed No79c14.05$11 inWon+$2.956870.6%48 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.