Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c06db041e311b6e75dee886195559de2af791fa86f7a845e8f1b7678e81b1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 295.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 46c | 286.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 266.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 257.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 52c | 215.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 201.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 182.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 161.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 47c | 153.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 143.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 50c | 140.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 109.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 108.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 102.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 95.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 59c | 91.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 43c | 75.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 74.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 65.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 62.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 52.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 51c | 47.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 46.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 44.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 47c | 39.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 35.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 62c | 34.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 34c | 33.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 33.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 67c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 69c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 28.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 41c | 25.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 71c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 15.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.