Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c43b98c32ceced491f239d6c4733878c48529df937c7bda596a7b062b1c31e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 306.78$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 254.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.56 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 15c | 208.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 175.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 24c | 175.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 62c | 160.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 41c | 144.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 143.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 17c | 142.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 27c | 119.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 68c | 115.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 45c | 105.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 27c | 102$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 16c | 99.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 99.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 22c | 95.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 94.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 52c | 91.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 20c | 87.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 84.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 18c | 80.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 77.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 16c | 75.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 56c | 67.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 53c | 61.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 50c | 60.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 59.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 68c | 58.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 56.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 26c | 47.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 51c | 43.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 42.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 38.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 69c | 34.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 34.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 33.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 58c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 79c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 75c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.