Tennis · resolved market
ITF Roda De Bara: Ludovico Vaccari vs Aren Baybars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f21a49d99fd51ebab092fb76fd2840556e67f24c9d34e2b4d73ae28e7b35a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aren Baybarsof Ludovico Vaccari, Aren Baybars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ludovico Vaccari | 57c | 6,798$3,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,874.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Aren Baybars | 44c | 3,862$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.27 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Aren Baybars | 43c | 998.59$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.69 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Aren Baybars | 47c | 429.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.62 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Aren Baybars | 52c | 428.85$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.85 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Aren Baybars | 23c | 407.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.69 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Aren Baybars | 23c | 382.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.61 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed Aren Baybars | 17c | 296.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.7 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Ludovico Vaccari | 37c | 270.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Aren Baybars | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Aren Baybars | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ludovico Vaccari | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Aren Baybars | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Aren Baybars | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Aren Baybars | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Aren Baybars | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ludovico Vaccari | 40c | 56.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Ludovico Vaccari | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aren Baybars | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Aren Baybars | 30c | 49.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 206 | 35.9%74 W · 132 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Aren Baybars | 42c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Aren Baybars | 49c | 40.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Ludovico Vaccari | 54c | 32.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ludovico Vaccari | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Aren Baybars | 41c | 30.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Ludovico Vaccari | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ludovico Vaccari | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.