MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2195a11ca61718480dd2f6d1690edbb8884d96b4b9b84352d2a3351d42ad29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Twins, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Brewers | 60c | 8,333$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.33 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 39c | 4,950$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.56 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Brewers | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Twins | 45c | 3,531$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.49 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 40c | 3,168$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.46 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Twins | 44c | 2,250$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 43c | 1,857$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Brewers | 67c | 1,379$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.74 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Brewers | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Twins | 42c | 984.75$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.83 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Twins | 40c | 950.78$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.31 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Twins | 9c | 899.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Twins | 2c | 884.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 68c | 734.97$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Twins | 44c | 712.24$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Twins | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Twins | 44c | 535.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Twins | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Twins | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 17c | 330.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Twins | 12c | 174.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Twins | 18c | 164.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Brewers | 62c | 161.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Brewers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Brewers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Brewers | 62c | 160.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Twins | 43c | 158.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Brewers | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Twins | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Brewers | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Twins | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Twins | 37c | 64.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Brewers | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Brewers | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Twins | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Brewers | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Brewers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Twins | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…a57dbacked Brewers | 57c | 38.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Brewers | 76c | 37.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Brewers | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 44c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Brewers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed Brewers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Brewers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…e235backed Twins | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.