Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2b3f9e015af329b13d9bcedd6ee3f5204a086e9e1872fc13b310b1458744ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 21c | 875.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 661.93$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 365.59$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 319.27$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 242.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 234.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 227.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 16c | 187.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 157.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 145$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 127.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 99.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 95.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 21c | 94.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 94.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 81.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 68c | 71.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 66.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 61.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…5462backed Yes | 42c | 37.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 66c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…ce73backed No | 79c | 23.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked No | 66c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.