Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba0e295b87f99c9625381fcf5a9fdb58c49ca86f17a80b52f0f58ca1a3d0a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 334$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 52c | 241.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 199.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 65c | 183.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 53c | 182.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 60c | 166.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 50c | 154.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 142$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 50c | 141.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 33c | 136.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 133.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 48c | 131.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 557 | 42.5%237 W · 320 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 105.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 101.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 94.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 94.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 36c | 90.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 86.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 84.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 50c | 79.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 32c | 72.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 39c | 69.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 62.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…12a9backed Yes | 49c | 56.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed No | 71c | 55.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 53.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 50.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 50.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 47.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 57c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 43.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 50c | 39.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed Yes | 50c | 39.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…5462backed Yes | 44c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 52c | 27.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 49c | 27.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…e41cbacked Yes | 57c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 90 | 25.6%23 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 50c | 22.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked No | 63c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 59c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.