Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf068cdbfd58e0c04ac959cb55af7388983bc73f24293134f272519f951c90a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 429.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 210.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 179.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 78c | 139$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 128.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 23c | 111.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 30c | 95.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 94.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…ce73backed Yes | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 30c | 63.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 54.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Yes | 24c | 52.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 79c | 44.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 329 | 38.3%126 W · 203 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 29.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 74c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.