South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6bd4b897ff662917f7550ad7fb9bc1f18e100a110fad6b83fad9f2c2ad34c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 24c | 8,063$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,091.52 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 4,821$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,711$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 3,158$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.78 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 35c | 1,830$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.25 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,160$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 1c | 1,149$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 33c | 1,019$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.97 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 517.88$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.83 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 508.47$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.33 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 73c | 471$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.55 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 73c | 353$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.04 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Under | 66c | 307.58$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 33c | 198.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 63c | 154.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 145.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 39c | 136.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 67c | 134.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 33c | 130.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 32c | 82.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 18c | 78.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Over | 35c | 76.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 61c | 48.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 33c | 47.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 67c | 37.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 60c | 35.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 39c | 33.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 61c | 30.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Under | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 76c | 23.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5this page
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.