Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7c12f8365b8f8c270cf9fe866de17fee3dc470b5f9b7160c9c64f9cb43e928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 332.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 18c | 259.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 48c | 236.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked Yes | 43c | 195.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 174.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 172.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 158.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 53c | 141.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 139.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 138.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 129.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 101.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 33c | 99.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 37c | 95.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 62.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 45c | 62.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 61.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 67c | 60.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 70c | 60.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 18c | 60.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 56c | 54.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 60c | 52.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 52.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked No | 70c | 51.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 55c | 46.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…30b3backed Yes | 37c | 45.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 44.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 43.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 42.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 41.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 39c | 39.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…f96ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 35c | 31.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 40c | 30.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 63c | 30.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked Yes | 71c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…1be9backed Yes | 38c | 29.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 46c | 29.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 39c | 28.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 48c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 68c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 45c | 25.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed No | 56c | 24.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 71c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 80c | 12.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.