Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Ajla Tomljanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa926d87bab66bd4af53b7e36b4c71bc136fc7242e00fff26db3fef1e2733527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Tomljanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic | 6c | 13,501$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…4253backed Tomljanovic | 4c | 7,690$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Cirstea | 56c | 4,664$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.4 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2839…0efebacked Tomljanovic | 34c | 4,220$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tomljanovic | 18c | 2,852$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Cirstea | 65c | 2,771$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.75 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tomljanovic | 15c | 2,420$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.08 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Cirstea | 66c | 2,284$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.86 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Tomljanovic | 41c | 2,264$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.67 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…b9f7backed Tomljanovic | 53c | 1,963$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tomljanovic | 41c | 1,501$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.25 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cirstea | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tomljanovic | 24c | 1,052$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.38 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cirstea | 62c | 1,032$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.4 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Tomljanovic | 51c | 1,000$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Tomljanovic | 32c | 872.97$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.62 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…4212backed Tomljanovic | 35c | 845.71$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cirstea | 67c | 817$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.99 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Cirstea | 67c | 800$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tomljanovic | 43c | 728.6$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.62 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Tomljanovic | 6c | 715.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Tomljanovic | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Tomljanovic | 39c | 618.27$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.62 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cirstea | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Cirstea | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…9c9abacked Cirstea | 55c | 445.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Cirstea | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Cirstea | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Tomljanovic | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Tomljanovic | 28c | 180.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Tomljanovic | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Cirstea | 69c | 150.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…0737backed Tomljanovic | 54c | 143.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cirstea | 49c | 140$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cirstea | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec12…8372backed Cirstea | 58c | 105.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Cirstea | 80c | 102.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Tomljanovic | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tomljanovic | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…77d8backed Tomljanovic | 28c | 70.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…71a7backed Cirstea | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Tomljanovic | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Cirstea | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tomljanovic | 42c | 37.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tomljanovic | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Cirstea | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Cirstea | 58c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.