MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa927ec6fa393437763b2b01a05184b60f9f770c5749fbdaa21e6c9609bde208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 5,483$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 5,262$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.04 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 72c | 3,349$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 26c | 3,014$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.59 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 59c | 722.72$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 70c | 367.12$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 257.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 21c | 224.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 61c | 211.23$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 208.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 50c | 181.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 135.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 48c | 115.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 103.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 46c | 91.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 69.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 48c | 64.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 79c | 53.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 56c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 46c | 31.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.