MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x807d37f36504198f37743adaf7370b218421ea3bc4d1e9714561928ec8b34e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 9,201$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.1 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 1,500$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,224$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 977.2$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.86 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 842.1$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.78 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 763.95$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.53 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 737.83$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.46 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 709.89$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.45 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 688.24$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.53 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 538.79$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 442.93$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 438.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 317.48$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.13 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 308.96$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 307.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 299.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 257.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 194.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 156.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 116.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 91.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 81.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 69.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 61.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 60.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 53.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 51.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 51.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 50.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 48.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…0e68backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 38.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 36.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 30.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 28.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 27.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 18.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.