Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa9d5747ad45c169a3ab5bb9face1eb94ab804e1fc47e299acc1dce773f5b5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35a…82f4backed No | 0c | 11,561$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 1c | 11,037$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 1c | 5,290$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 32c | 1,537$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.56 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…57fabacked No | 14c | 1,317$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 1c | 1,065$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 25c | 926.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.63 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 15c | 816.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 798.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 786.06$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7959backed No | 76c | 667.07$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 10c | 597.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.7 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 6c | 582.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.03 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 3c | 570.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 539.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 10c | 499.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.59 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 3c | 431.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 427.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 10c | 402.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…64c5backed Yes | 71c | 380.9$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 379.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 30c | 333.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 320.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.4 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 15c | 294.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 273.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Yes | 35c | 268.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 247$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 23c | 244.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…4ff1backed Yes | 36c | 243.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 77c | 224.58$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.93 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 12c | 222.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.39 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 14c | 221.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.28 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 218.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 196.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 8c | 181.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 79c | 162.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 16c | 152.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 25c | 144.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 27c | 141.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 136.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 80c | 114.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 46c | 107.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 63c | 103.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 95.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 90.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 80.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 31c | 76.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…ba26backed Yes | 22c | 75.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 18c | 74.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked No | 64c | 72.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 38c | 60.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 57.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 49c | 49.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…4492backed Yes | 34c | 39.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +289%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 29c | 37.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 28c | 36.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed No | 53c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 71c | 21.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes | 68c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.