TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd918…aa30backed Yes0c12,695$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.573215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x251f…0a14backed Yes0c12,333$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.79128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-63.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes42c806.38$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes42c795.64$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.154934.7%17 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes42c562.95$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.683,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes5c449.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2126327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes43c405.15$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.955336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c328.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.841,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x662e…4b20backed Yes40c325.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1412055%66 W · 54 L+16.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes50c238.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddef…ea08backed Yes50c181.72$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.434344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes62c166.89$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1317156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No49c147.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5319547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes43c135.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.951,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c134.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No65c133.74$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No47c122.32$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1634057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No60c119.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6820958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes45c115.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…1ea7backed No60c111.52$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes48c107.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8a…9362backed Yes65c107.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.657529.3%22 W · 53 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No48c104.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…428cbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2856921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x847b…b0fcbacked Yes45c97.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes57c90.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8230131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed No77c90.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0933962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa131…1074backed Yes41c88.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.473852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No58c86.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes45c85.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.973050%15 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No65c80.58$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.29656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…ad9dbacked Yes47c80.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-78.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No63c78.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x467a…e448backed Yes58c77.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.653650%18 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed Yes58c73.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.416144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c72.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x78fb…256cbacked No54c70.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.564660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes59c70.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.491,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes43c65.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.323333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…0fa3backed Yes59c57.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.884261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes44c55.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.591758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No52c53.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8724768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3862…d3a0backed Yes35c53.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b1…5999backed Yes43c52.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee83…ea10backed Yes52c51.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.642458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa225…40e5backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…f009backed Yes58c49.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.882147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c49.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2861…4b7bbacked No57c47.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.623250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccc…64c5backed No73c44.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.123100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed No53c44.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.996827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes54c42.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.911644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac1…91a8backed Yes45c42.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x216d…8087backed No58c41.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No54c40.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes60c38.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.331486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes62c38.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6760236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…51f6backed Yes50c37.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes31c36.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2247423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4760…91cdbacked Yes54c35.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes42c33.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.146426.6%17 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes59c32.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.172259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No32c31.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6696015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No43c31.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9217855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe037…8a91backed Yes56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.817841.6%74 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4710163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes39c28.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9911330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…6405backed Yes56c27.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.391952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked No41c27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0225335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133030%9 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984d…08f3backed Yes47c24.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a2…deacbacked Yes49c23.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.675054%27 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes65c23.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No64c23.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2819058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked No64c22.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1361249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0347432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa354…22ebbacked Yes68c18.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.582035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed No63c17.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5110652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd770…3687backed No61c17.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.