WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa9276206db0048b6fb0276fa8932fe8f8cf4c9d837b92a9aa9c170b7ef7233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof New York Liberty, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed PortlandFire | 52c | 2,068$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 47c | 1,219$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.78 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked New York Liberty | 48c | 1,164$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed New York Liberty | 47c | 760$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.2 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 747.51$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty | 35c | 679.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.27 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed PortlandFire | 50c | 490.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.04 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed New York Liberty | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed PortlandFire | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New York Liberty | 50c | 243.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed PortlandFire | 55c | 217.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed New York Liberty | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed PortlandFire | 51c | 195.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty | 45c | 189.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed PortlandFire | 55c | 142.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed PortlandFire | 57c | 120.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed PortlandFire | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked PortlandFire | 57c | 60.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked New York Liberty | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed PortlandFire | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed PortlandFire | 51c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed PortlandFire | 69c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed PortlandFire | 55c | 42.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed New York Liberty | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed PortlandFire | 51c | 34.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed PortlandFire | 54c | 33.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Liberty | 47c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…438abacked PortlandFire | 55c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…3893backed PortlandFire | 55c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed New York Liberty | 48c | 25.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked PortlandFire | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed PortlandFire | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed PortlandFire | 73c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. New York LibertyPortlandFire won
- PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty: O/U 176.5Under won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-14.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.