Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad04d4706fe8104cd8b58f6909be3f6e1a31cbc2bd62ece188eaf1d03907554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 39c | 338.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 39c | 331.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.87 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 307.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 295.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 289.68$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 282.22$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 262.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 34c | 260.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 73c | 247.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 217.3$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 209.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 203.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 19c | 199.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 77c | 195.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 186.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 164.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 140.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 139.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 129.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 23c | 126.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 38c | 119.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 113.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 108.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 63c | 95.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 87.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 85.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 79.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 75.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 73.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 72.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 70.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 27c | 64.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 64.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 60.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 38c | 56.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 31c | 55.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 52.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 69c | 51.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…2c5abacked No | 72c | 40.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 39.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 29.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a18dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 68c | 14.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.