CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb15960a2249be5e3feef7ed724b371638941ec5ca5f2fa0b571eae058e04724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Acend, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Acend | 16c | 1,097$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Acend | 3c | 999.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Acend | 17c | 582.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Acend | 16c | 434$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Acend | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Acend | 14c | 325.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed Ursa | 62c | 322.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Acend | 18c | 322$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Ursa | 39c | 316.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 239 | 32.2%77 W · 162 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a4…c4aabacked Ursa | 50c | 304.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Acend | 61c | 295$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Acend | 56c | 254.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…9a41backed Ursa | 58c | 193.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Acend | 16c | 179$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…b5a0backed Ursa | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ursa | 39c | 136.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Acend | 33c | 120.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Acend | 34c | 103.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Acend | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Acend | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Acend | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +178.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…e574backed Acend | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Acend | 20c | 96.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Acend | 66c | 89.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…16d6backed Acend | 61c | 77.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Acend | 50c | 67.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…90afbacked Acend | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…5925backed Acend | 40c | 44.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Acend | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed Ursa | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…30d8backed Acend | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Ursa | 63c | 39.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Acend | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Acend | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Acend | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Ursa | 73c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd5…5857backed Acend | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Acend | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…3fe4backed Acend | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Acend | 69c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Ursa | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Ursa | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.