Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb23dec790478ce22bced1f67c17595c0f46cd82ffbe6b64d88d1cdf63bf970b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,395 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 2,508$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 53c | 2,328$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.66 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 19c | 1,074$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 459.81$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.26 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 34c | 321.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.98 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 46c | 306$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…151cbacked Under | 19c | 277.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…d151backed Under | 19c | 277.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…142abacked Over | 50c | 238.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 16c | 219.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 39c | 114$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 16c | 109.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Under | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 75.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 65.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 53c | 49.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 31.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.