TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Los Angeles FCof Los Angeles FC, St. Louis City SC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,629 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed St. Louis City SC52c26,064$13,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,552.579649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed St. Louis City SC55c9,378$5,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,157.9615647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Los Angeles FC48c5,999$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.38946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Los Angeles FC45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Los Angeles FC45c4,359$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.893253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Los Angeles FC48c4,055$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.784942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Los Angeles FC48c3,500$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8205054%27 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Los Angeles FC48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3005251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Los Angeles FC43c2,027$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.5913053.1%69 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Los Angeles FC48c1,378$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.562941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Los Angeles FC47c1,294$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.9297146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed St. Louis City SC56c1,200$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6728661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Los Angeles FC44c1,200$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6681947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb3…78e9backed Los Angeles FC47c996.09$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.93785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+84.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Los Angeles FC48c965.15$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked St. Louis City SC52c781.94$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.614035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Los Angeles FC45c700$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38515341.2%63 W · 90 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked St. Louis City SC57c689$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7312451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed St. Louis City SC56c621.56$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.077044.3%31 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Los Angeles FC48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604456.8%25 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed St. Louis City SC60c436.88$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.133663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Los Angeles FC48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2083655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis City SC53c375.38$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4125149%123 W · 128 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c9…8ab7backed St. Louis City SC50c368$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…eed0backed St. Louis City SC50c364$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Los Angeles FC44c339.66$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.664445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked St. Louis City SC54c323.79$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.793641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Los Angeles FC48c300$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.56256.5%35 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d0…52ddbacked Los Angeles FC50c272$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3d72backed St. Louis City SC50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8150…98a4backed St. Louis City SC50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Los Angeles FC45c244.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.441442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ed…ceedbacked St. Louis City SC50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca37…dbb9backed St. Louis City SC50c230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44f…6d00backed Los Angeles FC50c228$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Los Angeles FC48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1174656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd646…6832backed Los Angeles FC45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles FC46c214.71$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.363,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd768…f352backed Los Angeles FC50c213$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5722…2fc4backed Los Angeles FC50c213$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d1…b4a2backed St. Louis City SC50c203$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Los Angeles FC25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Los Angeles FC47c195.83$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…1dc7backed Los Angeles FC50c193$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles FC35c188.17$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.661,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Los Angeles FC47c182.56$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2319657.1%112 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Los Angeles FC48c182$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6413948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x335e…0a4dbacked Los Angeles FC50c174$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fbf…6e97backed Los Angeles FC50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…c67dbacked Los Angeles FC45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+59.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1c0…9338backed Los Angeles FC50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a04…d1c7backed Los Angeles FC50c156$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Los Angeles FC48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788653.5%46 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Los Angeles FC48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Los Angeles FC48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784961.2%30 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9f…0ad9backed Los Angeles FC50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Los Angeles FC45c128.78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0213046.2%60 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Los Angeles FC48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655257.7%30 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Los Angeles FC48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6568550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Los Angeles FC48c115$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.85651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Los Angeles FC46c103.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.981457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Los Angeles FC48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Los Angeles FC48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525152.9%27 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Los Angeles FC48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5213557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles FC44c91.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0428721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Los Angeles FC48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Los Angeles FC48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b76…4f2dbacked Los Angeles FC22c89.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf16…25a5backed St. Louis City SC51c89.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked St. Louis City SC51c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3182044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Los Angeles FC48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Los Angeles FC48c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3920154.2%109 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis City SC78c66.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7646156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Los Angeles FC44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.62646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25451.9%28 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25149%25 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25046%23 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Los Angeles FC48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24951%25 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Los Angeles FC48c57.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.126256.5%35 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Los Angeles FC46c57.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.787150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Los Angeles FC46c56.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Los Angeles FC37c50.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5710648.1%51 W · 55 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Los Angeles FC48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d12…a4c4backed St. Louis City SC60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304271.4%30 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xaaf6…2971backed Los Angeles FC44c47.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.736100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Los Angeles FC45c44.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Los Angeles FC44c43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.254438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Los Angeles FC48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.674148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed St. Louis City SC52c39.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Los Angeles FC52c38.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.656439.1%25 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed St. Louis City SC53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked St. Louis City SC55c31.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Los Angeles FC48c31.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Los Angeles FC48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Los Angeles FC48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Los Angeles FC49c29.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.032937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.