Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3b4d228ac0b50568f695a55480501f48f45aa20247f8432b6e4d5f27a56b3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 827.73$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 730.05$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 546$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.78 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 8c | 418.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 45c | 390.96$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 382.13$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 271.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 218.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 200.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 179.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 6c | 178.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 59c | 169.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 156$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 155$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 17c | 152.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 129.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 115.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 45c | 92.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 84.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 15c | 80.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 78.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 76.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 75.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 75.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 65.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 62.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 61c | 47.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 47.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 46.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 46c | 44.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 36c | 41.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 34.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 59c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed Yes | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 28.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 63c | 27.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…94f3backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 26.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 66c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 63c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 22.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.