MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4fa643d9bcbb21b08cdb8d8da96ffa401790bff5bb3060ee82a8191f161db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 36c | 9,056$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,793.44 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 9,056$5,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,762.29 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 29c | 579.84$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 72c | 559.32$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.61 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 421.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 65c | 333.46$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.29 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 60c | 271.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 52c | 211.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 43c | 150.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 118.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 63c | 107.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 1,209 | 29%351 W · 858 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 26c | 82.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 43c | 67.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 49c | 61.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 749 | 43.4%325 W · 424 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 681 | 53.3%363 W · 318 L | +30.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 58.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 51.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 31.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 360 | 52.2%188 W · 172 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.