MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3544f784067e07dd0e0cbff4fd8442b0fa319649b1bcf1705f365c9ae454a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed New York Yankees | 37c | 27,319$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,319.44 | 254 | 45.3%115 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 63c | 12,230$7,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,704.9 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Houston Astros | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 18c | 3,106$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.43 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 63c | 1,517$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.71 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 63c | 1,150$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.27 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 34c | 572.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.49 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…f1f9backed New York Yankees | 57c | 412.91$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Houston Astros | 63c | 404.68$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.95 | 1,219 | 40.4%493 W · 726 L | -33.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 37c | 404.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.95 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 63c | 399$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Houston Astros | 64c | 315.87$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Houston Astros | 66c | 263.65$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 57c | 203.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed New York Yankees | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | -22.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 150.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 103.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 101.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…b490backed New York Yankees | 36c | 75.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Yankees | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 471 | 59.4%280 W · 191 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 50.2%159 W · 158 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Houston Astros | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…a57cbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Astros | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Houston Astros | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 872 | 54.2%473 W · 399 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.