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MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof Houston Astros, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$731,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$739,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros39c370,324$145,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,250.611,44949.5%717 W · 732 L-3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408f…b2f4backed New York Yankees54c260,594$139,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,895.964548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees67c82,698$55,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,214.7511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros44c49,916$21,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,992.654,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees60c40,545$24,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,105.333,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Houston Astros46c40,000$18,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,40028154.1%152 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Yankees59c29,656$17,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,303.6463443.5%276 W · 358 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed New York Yankees71c29,043$20,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,422.4190846.5%422 W · 486 L+27.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed New York Yankees53c28,302$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,301.8925445.3%115 W · 139 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed New York Yankees53c19,981$10,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,391.132339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros46c16,302$7,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,498.923,56251%1,817 W · 1,745 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees64c9,206$5,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.018,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros46c7,720$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.185,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees62c6,686$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.34,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees58c6,084$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.911,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Yankees53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82051052.5%268 W · 242 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Yankees68c5,394$3,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.8398645%444 W · 542 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Houston Astros34c5,105$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.8784342.9%362 W · 481 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501,08848.3%525 W · 563 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Houston Astros46c4,348$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00036743.6%160 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees48c4,076$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.6258058.4%339 W · 241 L+28.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Houston Astros47c4,025$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.5849245.9%226 W · 266 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9999750.1%499 W · 498 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees68c3,360$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.221,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb56d…d621backed New York Yankees62c3,226$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.817561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros25c3,116$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.238,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Houston Astros46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38050351.9%261 W · 242 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Houston Astros62c2,981$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.3212047.5%57 W · 63 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.781,69850.2%853 W · 845 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Houston Astros48c2,600$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.817953.1%95 W · 84 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros34c2,553$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.574,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed New York Yankees51c2,552$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.1113243.2%57 W · 75 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Houston Astros28c2,541$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.6211441.2%47 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Houston Astros57c2,524$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.146753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees65c2,314$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.318,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Houston Astros38c2,303$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.8625852.7%136 W · 122 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed Houston Astros47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros47c2,109$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.727,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked New York Yankees75c1,904$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.987740.3%31 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…7eccbacked New York Yankees53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+97.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Houston Astros48c1,800$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85559452.9%314 W · 280 L+2.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Yankees52c1,785$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.5140643.6%177 W · 229 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc202…1623backed Houston Astros48c1,406$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.111163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees47c1,382$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.6337856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed New York Yankees79c1,299$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros47c1,247$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.181,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Houston Astros47c1,196$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.1238449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed New York Yankees61c1,157$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.5828747.7%137 W · 150 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Yankees55c1,136$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1124349%119 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees53c1,093$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.921,54351.1%789 W · 754 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9707…e3bcbacked New York Yankees53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4703658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Houston Astros46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46033048.2%159 W · 171 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Houston Astros46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46031047.4%147 W · 163 L-1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Houston Astros50c996.74$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Yankees53c996$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.121,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…0517backed New York Yankees54c927$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.428754%47 W · 40 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6457…ed50backed Houston Astros50c862.15$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3f5…33d0backed Houston Astros50c862.15$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros47c850$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.51,92653.4%1,029 W · 897 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Astros47c817$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.991,42048.9%694 W · 726 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees66c753.42$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.684,20150.2%2,109 W · 2,092 L+94.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Houston Astros47c750$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.531752.7%167 W · 150 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Houston Astros47c750$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.513750.4%69 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Houston Astros43c749.78$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1263347.1%298 W · 335 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed New York Yankees68c735.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.9311661.2%71 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c5…0322backed New York Yankees54c727.28$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.551154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros41c710.53$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.179,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees62c662.17$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0553357.6%307 W · 226 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Houston Astros48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016741.3%69 W · 98 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed New York Yankees58c602.46$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9529347.4%139 W · 154 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed New York Yankees50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Houston Astros36c583.5$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.255151%26 W · 25 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees52c576.53$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.031,97541.3%815 W · 1,160 L-27.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…9a05backed Houston Astros54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-53.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed New York Yankees72c544.93$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.2630152.5%158 W · 143 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Houston Astros38c520.58$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0188348%424 W · 459 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed New York Yankees59c509.16$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.611,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf0…ffe4backed Houston Astros53c500$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2641546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed New York Yankees76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Houston Astros46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23015751%80 W · 77 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dfe…b081backed New York Yankees52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros46c493.5$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.012,37249.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees75c424.22$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8894456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed New York Yankees47c412.69$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.012245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros11c411.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.132,07739.3%817 W · 1,260 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Houston Astros34c399.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9910936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Houston Astros47c382.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Houston Astros23c369$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1379249.2%390 W · 402 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed New York Yankees59c357.8$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.731247.8%149 W · 163 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe963…6753backed Houston Astros43c355.13$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.717745.5%35 W · 42 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed New York Yankees49c348.15$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17817442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees60c331.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.51,26758.5%741 W · 526 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed New York Yankees59c325.87$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.536451.4%187 W · 177 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees62c309.13$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.51,04958.4%613 W · 436 L+21.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed New York Yankees73c267.3$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.361,01944.7%455 W · 564 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Houston Astros48c258.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1159743%257 W · 340 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Houston Astros46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11526147.5%124 W · 137 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees65c249.25$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.812,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed New York Yankees65c244.58$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.536753.1%195 W · 172 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.