Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-01-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6125bdc2405fac37bfb22783c8220a12062238bcfb55ebce03a8260c717ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 24,646$18,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,899 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 16,138$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.33 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 75c | 10,414$7,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 7,334$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.28 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 7,240$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.74 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 7,159$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.13 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…b6e6backed No | 76c | 1,631$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed No | 76c | 1,332$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 1,038$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 13c | 978.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 23c | 542.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 24c | 413.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 24c | 383.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 361$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 316.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 24c | 299.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 77c | 164.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Yes | 25c | 147.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 25c | 125.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 86.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked No | 77c | 56.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…afb4backed Yes | 20c | 55.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 80c | 32.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-01-03?this page
- Will AVS Futebol vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.