Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3a1240cc703d60b675ce6fb6ea913d7d2034a234778e41ab7d0e53f9fad9383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 24c | 9,141$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.74 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 1c | 5,325$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 79c | 1,910$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.45 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 53c | 1,256$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 18c | 1,175$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 46c | 905.24$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.49 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 28c | 501$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd2…5dfdbacked Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 55c | 437.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.48 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 71c | 421.97$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 45c | 330.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 222$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 47c | 147.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 45c | 118.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 216 | 44.4%96 W · 120 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…5307backed Yes | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…b37fbacked Yes | 45c | 59.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…3c09backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 42c | 35.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea80…41afbacked Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 41c | 29.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 44c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…c87fbacked Yes | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked No | 53c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-03?this page
- Will AVS Futebol vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-01-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.