South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb74e9d98334416276b6a16e5f9dd1c31f09930a2ecc781ce64f79e7347fbb6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Universitario de Deportesof Club Nacional de Football, Club Universitario de Deportes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Club Nacional de Football | 3c | 8,460$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 71c | 920$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Nacional de Football | 29c | 890.21$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Club Nacional de Football | 30c | 833$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Club Nacional de Football | 20c | 515.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…1bacbacked Club Nacional de Football | 19c | 495.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 80c | 405.68$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Club Nacional de Football | 4c | 355.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Club Nacional de Football | 29c | 300.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Club Nacional de Football | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Club Nacional de Football | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 75c | 158.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Club Nacional de Football | 31c | 151.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Club Nacional de Football | 7c | 148.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Club Nacional de Football | 27c | 59.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Club Universitario de Deportes | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Club Nacional de Football | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Club Universitario de Deportes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Club Universitario de Deportes | 70c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Club Universitario de Deportes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)this page
- Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5)Club Universitario de Deportes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.