MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb91f602bb0032772c617bb04138e197ebae64bf7d83483b1305178f8c431613
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed No | 57c | 4,444$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,793$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.9 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 43c | 1,588$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.9 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 43c | 230.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 218.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 118.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked No | 55c | 91.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 55c | 82.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 77.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 31.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 26.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.