MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c6fb01a2124144d8be228a18911a6c502781bc130de416ffaf0efbb228ac48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 1,489$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.16 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 838.5$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 54c | 799.51$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 758.91$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 76c | 427.55$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 68c | 399$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 32c | 359$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…98bebacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 208.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 186$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 184.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 173.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 170.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 47c | 103.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 57c | 96.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 67.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 78c | 63.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked Over | 53c | 58.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 62c | 51.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…a015backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c64…cb99backed Under | 49c | 46.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 56c | 44.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 50c | 37.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 36.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 33.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 43c | 32.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 79c | 29.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.