College Football · resolved market
Ball State vs. Northern Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb93644dc931465ae96ea59adfc5eab3aaa66274e95392f59760d4d0e1761b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Illinoisof Ball State, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Northern Illinois | 66c | 5,085$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.46 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Ball State | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Northern Illinois | 66c | 3,300$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.21 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Ball State | 33c | 2,907$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.31 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Ball State | 36c | 2,805$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Northern Illinois | 72c | 2,374$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.1 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…c28cbacked Ball State | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…34a6backed Northern Illinois | 68c | 1,212$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Illinois | 67c | 1,202$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.62 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Northern Illinois | 67c | 1,007$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.45 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Northern Illinois | 67c | 912.5$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.18 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Ball State | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…1930backed Ball State | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Northern Illinois | 72c | 661.64$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Ball State | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Ball State | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ball State | 36c | 456.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Northern Illinois | 67c | 410$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ball State | 36c | 372.28$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ball State | 5c | 370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e4a1backed Ball State | 26c | 306.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Ball State | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Northern Illinois | 67c | 277$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Ball State | 30c | 211.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Northern Illinois | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Ball State | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Northern Illinois | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Northern Illinois | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ball State | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Ball State | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northern Illinois | 67c | 95.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Ball State | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…190cbacked Ball State | 20c | 84.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Ball State | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Northern Illinois | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Ball State | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Northern Illinois | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…d326backed Ball State | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Northern Illinois | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Northern Illinois | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Northern Illinois | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Northern Illinois | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…d998backed Northern Illinois | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Northern Illinois | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State vs. Northern Illinoisthis page
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-6.5)Northern Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.