Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba129df875c7797272bbaf9339760908fb49a8cd36fd663c9c65dbb686e7a07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,057$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 636.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 17c | 548.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 418.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 21c | 404.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 394.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 391.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 283.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 241.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 182.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 79c | 163.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 76c | 162.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 156.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 143.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 139.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 27c | 137.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 136.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 131.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0f2bbacked Yes | 15c | 115.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 112.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 17c | 109.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…4b3dbacked Yes | 29c | 96.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 96.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 21c | 93.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 17c | 91.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 28c | 80.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 21c | 66.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…d406backed Yes | 21c | 65.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 64.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 28c | 61.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 28c | 57.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 24c | 56.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 30c | 55.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 20c | 52.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 42.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 40.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 39.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 37.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 35.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 79c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 74c | 20.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.