TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,101 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe693…dd17backed Yes65c1,198$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4727841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ee…b88fbacked No4c1,170$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.94170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No15c556.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes74c436.59$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.264030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes41c310.93$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes57c303.62$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.874,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No8c299.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9659121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.71$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5130…818bbacked No4c270.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-52%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes48c249.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4210642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c203.78$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No47c187.63$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.965158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No62c185.34$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c167.87$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c151.32$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.322,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c143.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No40c128$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.241,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3884…4a9cbacked No48c118.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.451637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No39c115.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes56c114.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.071,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2a2…eca0backed Yes45c113.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes37c112.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.454918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c112.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.912,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No23c110.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6220838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes51c110.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No51c109.93$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c109.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked No56c108.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c106.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c105.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.882,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes41c101.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.611,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c96.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf456…0be7backed No24c95.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c92$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c90.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.913,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes33c89.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.268748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No47c85.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.042,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes43c84.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No59c84.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No62c84.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes50c81.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.825038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea2…b59abacked Yes48c80.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes52c80.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.517639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No40c80.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3810163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Yes39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes58c75.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7515236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No59c73.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No61c72.32$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9314671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes56c61.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1712638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes51c60.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9311343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c56.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3832738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4584…5473backed Yes53c56.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+279.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes41c54.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes36c52.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.963548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No60c52.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3912057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No39c51.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.214766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c50.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.492,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes33c50.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7611729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c0…d247backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9547…1bf5backed Yes40c49.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.893441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes31c49.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.772837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.023844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes65c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes40c47.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3937835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes40c47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes37c46.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No60c46.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8762770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No63c46.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3518272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No63c45.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes53c45.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.261,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No46c44.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3716045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes45c43.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.982,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No47c43.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes46c41.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7426434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c41.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes51c41.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1711249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c40.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b8…35d7backed Yes37c40.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed No47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.826236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No62c39.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de4…8b3cbacked Yes36c39.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked Yes54c38.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.559552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No63c38.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.029361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes36c38.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No50c37.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9420353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes37c37.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No62c35.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0817066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9812…913dbacked Yes50c34.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.142055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No59c34.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0114666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes52c34.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3417536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes65c33.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.562147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64f…99d7backed No62c31.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x565c…585abacked No61c31.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick74cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33a…fae1backed Yes32c31.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No63c30.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2719772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes40c30.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.963745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes39c29.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.045837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No67c28.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.434,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes49c27.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Yes42c27.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.76716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.