Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a407a0398776e7fef5051e11b0f2216f57d6be515eee8143ac11993b47ba63b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ca…3266backed Yes | 4c | 1,232$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 713.69$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 705.26$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 3c | 641.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 372.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 297.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 289.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 264.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 259.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 234.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 233.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 225.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 212.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 75c | 209.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 151.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 150.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 143.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 132.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 129.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…036bbacked Yes | 32c | 122.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 120.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 115.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 17c | 106.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…4b3dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 95.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 95.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 85.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 27c | 83.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 83.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 23c | 80.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 23c | 80.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 74.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 74.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 67.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 17c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 75c | 63.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 78c | 58.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 33c | 55.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 27c | 54.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 54.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 47.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 44.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 43.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 36c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 76c | 35.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 34.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 80c | 30.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 77c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 77c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 80c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 75c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 76c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 74c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 77c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 78c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.