CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Time Waves vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdcb5047df66e463520647a1095268fb19cef2acc7d75b8fb0c132b077beb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arcade Esportsof Time Waves, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Arcade Esports | 58c | 607.06$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…a595backed Time Waves | 53c | 542.54$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Arcade Esports | 50c | 466.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.23 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arcade Esports | 58c | 369.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed Arcade Esports | 51c | 287.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 370 | 57%211 W · 159 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Arcade Esports | 52c | 281.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 190 | 35.8%68 W · 122 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Time Waves | 42c | 270.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Time Waves | 21c | 269.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 199 | 53.8%107 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…9358backed Time Waves | 51c | 245$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Arcade Esports | 64c | 242.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed Time Waves | 16c | 234.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 159 | 30.8%49 W · 110 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports | 50c | 224.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Time Waves | 35c | 220.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Time Waves | 42c | 214.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Arcade Esports | 70c | 190.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Time Waves | 31c | 189.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Time Waves | 50c | 181.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Arcade Esports | 67c | 181.46$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…7817backed Time Waves | 23c | 177.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 256 | 35.5%91 W · 165 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Arcade Esports | 60c | 176.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Arcade Esports | 69c | 160.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Arcade Esports | 30c | 160$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Time Waves | 39c | 145.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Time Waves | 38c | 141.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports | 72c | 94.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Arcade Esports | 58c | 91.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 405 | 42%170 W · 235 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed Time Waves | 34c | 80.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Time Waves | 40c | 77.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Time Waves | 42c | 76.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Time Waves | 17c | 72.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 883 | 30.7%271 W · 612 L | -63.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arcade Esports | 59c | 71.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Time Waves | 44c | 71.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Time Waves | 23c | 65.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Arcade Esports | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Time Waves | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Time Waves | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arcade Esports | 54c | 45.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Time Waves | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Arcade Esports | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Arcade Esports | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Time Waves | 59c | 28.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Arcade Esports | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Arcade Esports | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Time Waves vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: Time Waves vs Arcade Esports - Map 1 WinnerArcade Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Time Waves vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 WinnerTime Waves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.