Asian League · resolved market
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe9f532b8c63f1bcd3a8e54e08cf2722db1c7e29009f16bf18e5cae5cfa346a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 68c | 2,794$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 2,663$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.18 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 37c | 808.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 428.2$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 63c | 380.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 64c | 171.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 71c | 126.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 95.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 35c | 44.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…a2c0backed Over | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 35c | 40.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.